> MATCH.PREDICT()·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Saturday 02 May, 18:00 UTC
Ajax vs PSV
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
30.2% home23.9% draw45.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AjaxstepPSV
1.58Base xG · rolling 26-match2.21
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.71Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.13
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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3
4
5
6
0
2
5
5
3
2
1
1
4
8
8
6
3
1
2
3
7
7
5
3
1
3
2
4
4
3
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 9.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 32.8% · @ 3.05x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Ajax 2–2 PSV
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+