FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Ajax 2–2 PSVMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Ajax at 30%, draw at 24%, PSV at 46%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was PSV to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax win
30%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
PSV win
46%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.71 – 2.13
Total 3.83
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 90%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.05x
- X2✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 9.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✓