> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Sunday 17 May, 11:30 UTC
Anderlecht vs KV Mechelen
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Anderlecht's 0.63 xG advantage and 81% over 2.5 goals probability makes the total the most compelling play despite even win odds.
Win probability
49.6% home24.9% draw25.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AnderlechtstepKV Mechelen
2.01Base xG · rolling 26-match1.61
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.18Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.55
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Anderlecht 2–2 KV Mechelen
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+