FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Anderlecht 2–2 KV MechelenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Anderlecht at 50%, draw at 25%, KV Mechelen at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Anderlecht to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
50%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Mechelen win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.18 – 1.55
Total 3.73
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.49x
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"Anderlecht's 0.63 xG advantage and 81% over 2.5 goals probability makes the total the most compelling play despite even win odds."