> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 10 May, 19:00 UTC
Angers vs Strasbourg
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
29.7% home28.3% draw42.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AngersstepStrasbourg
1.34Base xG · rolling 26-match1.82
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.75
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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7
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10
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5
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8
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 36.4% · @ 2.75x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Angers 1–1 Strasbourg
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+