FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Angers 1–1 StrasbourgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Angers at 30%, draw at 28%, Strasbourg at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Strasbourg to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
30%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Strasbourg win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.75
Total 3.20
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 47%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.75x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗