> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Monday 18 May, 19:00 UTC
Arsenal vs Burnley
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Arsenal's 1.98 xG dominance against Burnley's 0.76 in a relegation battle makes 1X at 88% the banker play despite modest 2.74 total xG.
Win probability
63.0% home25.3% draw11.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ArsenalstepBurnley
1.83Base xG · rolling 26-match0.79
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.98Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.76
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
5
2
1
13
10
4
1
2
13
10
4
1
3
8
6
2
1
4
4
3
1
5
2
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Home Win + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 22.2% · @ 4.51x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Arsenal 1–0 Burnley
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+