FT · England: Premier League · Monday, 18 May 2026
Arsenal 1–0 BurnleyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 18 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Arsenal at 63%, draw at 25%, Burnley at 12%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Arsenal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Arsenal win
63%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Burnley win
12%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.98 – 0.76
Total 2.74
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 46%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.51x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Home Win✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 22.5 Shots✗
> What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's 1.98 xG dominance against Burnley's 0.76 in a relegation battle makes 1X at 88% the banker play despite modest 2.74 total xG."