Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / Monaco
Team profile

Monaco Prediction

Per-game numbers from 44 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.7
a game
14.6 faced
On target
4.5
a game
4.6 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.7
scored – conceded
a game, 44 matches
Next match
43%
Monaco win chance
at Le Havre · Sun 23 Aug 15:15

Monaco prediction: for Monaco's next match — Le Havre vs Monaco on Sunday 23 Aug, 15:15 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Monaco win looks most likely (43%).

Monaco sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.77 expected goals a game and conceding 1.54. Next up is a trip to Le Havre AC, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 43%.

Monaco in numbers

44 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
Home 1.7Away 1.6
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.5
Home 5.0Away 5.0
12.7
Shots · per game
faced 14.6
Home 12.4Away 13.0
4.5
On target · per game
faced 4.6
Home 4.6Away 4.4
Last 6 games
17 May
4-5
@ Strasbourg
6-4
10 May
0-1
vs Lille
5-2
02 May
2-1
@ Metz
9-5
25 Apr
2-2
@ Toulouse
2-4
19 Apr
2-2
vs Auxerre
11-3
10 Apr
1-4
@ Paris
11-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Le Havre · Sunday 23 Aug, 15:15 UTC

Win
43%
Monaco
Draw
26%
Loss
31%
Le Havre
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Monaco compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.77
Above average
Goals against
1.54
Leakier than most
Record
3W 0D 2L
5 settled
Real goals
2.0 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.77
Conceded1.54

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.58 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.77 xG per match · +0.20 above the France: Ligue 1 average of 1.58.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Monaco fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Monaco

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 17 May@ Strasbourg
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 Mayvs Lille
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 May@ Metz
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Aprvs Marseille
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ Lyon
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INMatthis AblineLWfrom Nantes€25m
INAnsu FatiAMfrom Barcelona€11m
INSadibou SanéCBfrom Metz€7m
INFlávio NazinhoLBfrom Cercle BruggeUndisclosed
INMathys DetourbetLWfrom Manchester CityLoan
OUTAladji BambaDMto Newcastle United€36m
OUTMaghnes AklioucheRWto Paris Saint-GermainUndisclosed
OUTCaio HenriqueLBto Ajax€11m
OUTKassoum OuattaraLMto Beşiktaş€10m
OUTRadoslaw MajeckiGKto Pafos FCLoan
OUTLucas MichalSTto Cercle BruggeLoan
OUTYanis BenchaouchGKto Red StarFree transfer
OUTJoan TincrèsSTto Le HavreUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Monaco and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly