> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Premier League·Sunday 03 May, 18:00 UTC
Aston Villa vs Tottenham
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
45.4% home29.5% draw25.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Aston VillastepTottenham
1.41Base xG · rolling 26-match1.11
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.52Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.06
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
2
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 11.3% · @ 8.84x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Aston Villa 1–2 Tottenham
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+