FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Aston Villa 1–2 TottenhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Aston Villa at 45%, draw at 29%, Tottenham at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Aston Villa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Villa win
45%
Draw
29%
Tottenham win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.06
Total 2.59
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Value
X2
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 8.84x
- 1X✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✓