> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 16:00 UTC
Atalanta vs Bologna
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Atalanta's Europa desperation and 0.44 xG advantage make 1X a safe 70% play despite Bologna's stubborn mid-table setup.
Win probability
44.0% home31.9% draw24.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AtalantastepBologna
1.39Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.06
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
2
1
12
12
7
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Atalanta 0–1 Bologna
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+