FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Atalanta 0–1 BolognaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Atalanta at 44%, draw at 32%, Bologna at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Atalanta to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
44%
Draw
32%
Bologna win
24%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.06
Total 2.56
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 70%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.67x
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- 1X✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Atalanta's Europa desperation and 0.44 xG advantage make 1X a safe 70% play despite Bologna's stubborn mid-table setup."