> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 09 May, 16:30 UTC
Atlético Madrid vs Celta Vigo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
44.6% home27.6% draw27.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Atlético MadridstepCelta Vigo
1.72Base xG · rolling 26-match1.50
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.86Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.45
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
4
2
1
1
7
10
7
3
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + 1X + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 28.1% · @ 3.56x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Atlético Madrid 0–1 Celta Vigo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+