FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Atlético Madrid 0–1 Celta VigoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Atlético Madrid at 45%, draw at 28%, Celta Vigo at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Atlético Madrid to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Madrid win
45%
Draw
28%
Vigo win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.86 – 1.45
Total 3.30
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 46%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.56x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
- Over 22.5 Shots✓