> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 17 May, 00:30 UTC
Austin FC vs Sporting Kansas City
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Austin's 0.52 xG advantage and 86% Over 1.5 probability offer safer expected-goals-backed value than the tight 47% home win odds.
Win probability
47.2% home26.3% draw26.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Austin FCstepSporting Kansas City
1.85Base xG · rolling 26-match1.54
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.00Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.48
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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1
1
6
9
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5
1
1
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Austin FC 1–2 Sporting Kansas City
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+