FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Austin FC 1–2 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Austin FC at 47%, draw at 26%, Sporting Kansas City at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Austin FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
47%
Draw
26%
City win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.00 – 1.48
Total 3.48
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.08x
- 1X✗
- BTTS Yes✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Austin's 0.52 xG advantage and 86% Over 1.5 probability offer safer expected-goals-backed value than the tight 47% home win odds."