> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 10 May, 19:00 UTC
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
47.9% home22.5% draw29.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BarcelonastepReal Madrid
2.29Base xG · rolling 26-match2.03
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.96
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+