FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Barcelona 2–0 Real MadridMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Barcelona at 48%, draw at 23%, Real Madrid at 30%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Barcelona.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Barcelona win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Madrid win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.47 – 1.96
Total 4.43
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-2.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
BTTS No
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.63x
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- BTTS Yes✗
- 1X✓