> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Monday 11 May, 19:15 UTC
Benfica vs Braga
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Benfica's 0.54 xG advantage combined with 78% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total play more reliable than the even-odds home win.
Win probability
47.6% home26.4% draw26.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BenficastepBraga
1.84Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.99Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.45
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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5
6
0
3
5
3
2
1
1
6
9
7
3
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
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6
4
2
1
4
2
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2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Benfica 2–2 Braga
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+