FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 11 May 2026
Benfica 2–2 BragaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Benfica at 48%, draw at 26%, Braga at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Benfica to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
48%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Braga win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.99 – 1.45
Total 3.44
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 49%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.26x
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
> What we said pre-match
"Benfica's 0.54 xG advantage combined with 78% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total play more reliable than the even-odds home win."