> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Premier League·Saturday 02 May, 14:00 UTC
Brentford vs West Ham
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
55.5% home24.3% draw20.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BrentfordstepWest Ham
1.90Base xG · rolling 26-match1.21
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.17
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 12.0% · @ 8.31x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Brentford 3–0 West Ham
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+