FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Brentford 3–0 West HamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Brentford at 55%, draw at 24%, West Ham at 20%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Brentford.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brentford win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Ham win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.05 – 1.17
Total 3.22
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 20%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 8.31x
- Home Win✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓