> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Wednesday 13 May, 17:00 UTC
Brest vs Strasbourg
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Strasbourg's 41% win probability with superior xG (1.79) offers compelling value against Brest's 31% despite home advantage.
Win probability
30.9% home27.8% draw41.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BreststepStrasbourg
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.86
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.53Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.79
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Brest 1–2 Strasbourg
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+