FT · France: Ligue 1 · Wednesday, 13 May 2026
Brest 1–2 StrasbourgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 13 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Brest at 31%, draw at 28%, Strasbourg at 41%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Strasbourg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brest win
31%
Draw
28%
Strasbourg win
41%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.53 – 1.79
Total 3.33
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 47%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.49x
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Strasbourg's 41% win probability with superior xG (1.79) offers compelling value against Brest's 31% despite home advantage."