> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 02 May, 11:30 UTC
Bristol City vs Stoke
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
39.0% home31.1% draw29.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Bristol CitystepStoke
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.13
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
3
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Bristol City 2–0 Stoke
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+