Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Bristol City
Team profile

Bristol City Prediction

Per-game numbers from 48 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.4
a game
13.4 faced
On target
4.0
a game
4.4 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 48 matches
Next match
16%
Bristol City win chance
at Birmingham · Sat 22 Aug 11:30

Bristol City prediction: for Bristol City's next match — Birmingham vs Bristol City on Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Birmingham are favoured (55%).

Bristol City sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.27 expected goals a game and conceding 1.21. Next up is a trip to Birmingham City, where the model has them as underdogs at 16%.

Bristol City in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.3Away 1.1
5.1
Corners · per game
give up 5.0
Home 5.0Away 5.1
12.4
Shots · per game
faced 13.4
Home 13.4Away 11.4
4.0
On target · per game
faced 4.4
Home 4.0Away 4.0
Last 6 games
15 Aug
0-2
vs Millwall
6-6
06 Aug
0-1
vs Walsall
13-4
02 May
2-0
vs Stoke
2-15
25 Apr
1-2
@ Birmingham
5-6
21 Apr
2-2
@ Southampton
3-7
18 Apr
2-4
vs Norwich
2-10

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Birmingham · Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC

Win
16%
Bristol City
Draw
29%
Loss
55%
Birmingham
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Bristol City compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.27
Below average
Goals against
1.21
Tighter than most
Record
3W 0D 3L
6 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.27
Conceded1.21

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.27 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Bristol City fixtures (3/4).

How Bawler has done on Bristol City

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 6
Goals (Over/Under)75%3/4
Result50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 15 Augvs Millwall
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 Mayvs Stoke
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Aprvs Norwich
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 06 Aprvs Sheffield Utd
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 03 Apr@ Charlton
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Marvs West Brom
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INLorent TolajSTfrom Plymouth Argyle€4.7m
INLisav Naif EissatCBfrom Maccabi Haifa€2.5m
INSam GreenwoodAMfrom Pogoń SzczecinUndisclosed
INSam TickleGKfrom Wigan AthleticUndisclosed
INGibson YahDMfrom FC VolendamUndisclosed
INJed WallaceRMfrom Free agentFree transfer
INBradley CollinsGKfrom Free agentFree transfer
INRio CardinesRWBfrom Crystal PalaceLoan
OUTSinclair ArmstrongSTto Göztepe€1.8m
OUTMax BirdDMto Birmingham CityUndisclosed
OUTRoss McCrorieRWBto Rangers€1m
OUTMark SykesRWBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTJamie Knight-LebelCBto MotherwellLoan
OUTJosh StokesAMto ReadingLoan
OUTEphraim YeboahSTto Ashton UnitedLoan
OUTSam MorsyDMto Free agentUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Bristol City and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly