FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Bristol City 2–0 StokeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Bristol City at 39%, draw at 31%, Stoke at 30%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Bristol City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Stoke win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.13
Total 2.46
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost