Stoke operate as a blunt attacking force with modest underlying efficiency—1.20 xG per match—while their defence remains brittle at 1.27 xG conceded, placing them firmly in the vulnerability bracket. A damaging run of four defeats in five settled fixtures has underlined structural fragility rather than temporary variance. Without immediate fixtures in the prediction window, the focus remains on their underlying metrics: the Poisson model identifies narrow margins in both boxes that reward disciplined backing. Bawler's banker selections on Stoke have maintained a perfect 5 from 5 record, reflecting the model's consistent edge on this side's predictable patterns.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Stoke were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the ENGLAND: Championship average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Stoke are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Stoke actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Stoke's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Stoke fixture, the model lands 5 out of 5 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.
How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on Stoke fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Stoke matches.