> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 10 May, 13:00 UTC
Burnley vs Aston Villa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
28.6% home29.5% draw42.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BurnleystepAston Villa
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.73
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.34Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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8
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2
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11
9
5
2
1
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7
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3
1
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3
2
1
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1
1
1
1
5
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + X2 + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals
Model 37.3% · @ 2.68x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+