FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Burnley 2–2 Aston VillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Burnley at 29%, draw at 29%, Aston Villa at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Aston Villa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
29%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Villa win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.34 – 1.66
Total 3.00
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 47%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.68x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- X2✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓