> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Saturday 09 May, 13:00 UTC
Cagliari vs Udinese
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
37.2% home31.0% draw31.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CagliaristepUdinese
1.36Base xG · rolling 26-match1.40
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.35
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
5
2
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Cagliari 0–2 Udinese
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+