FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Cagliari 0–2 UdineseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Cagliari at 37%, draw at 31%, Udinese at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Cagliari to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cagliari win
37%
Draw
31%
Udinese win
32%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.47 – 1.35
Total 2.82
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.78x
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✓