> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Tuesday 12 May, 17:00 UTC
Celta Vigo vs Levante
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Celta's Champions League desperation and 0.51 xG advantage make Home Win the value play despite balanced probabilities favoring Over 1.5 Goals.
Win probability
46.7% home27.1% draw26.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Celta VigostepLevante
1.77Base xG · rolling 26-match1.46
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.92Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.41
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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5
6
0
4
5
4
2
1
1
7
10
7
3
1
2
7
9
7
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1
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6
4
2
1
4
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2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Celta Vigo 2–3 Levante
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+