FT · Spain: La Liga · Tuesday, 12 May 2026
Celta Vigo 2–3 LevanteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 12 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Celta Vigo at 47%, draw at 27%, Levante at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Celta Vigo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vigo win
47%
Draw
27%
Levante win
26%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.92 – 1.41
Total 3.33
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 48%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.47x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- 1X✗
> What we said pre-match
"Celta's Champions League desperation and 0.51 xG advantage make Home Win the value play despite balanced probabilities favoring Over 1.5 Goals."