> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Wednesday 13 May, 23:30 UTC
CF Montréal vs Portland Timbers
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Montréal's 1.93 xG dominance over Portland's 1.17 makes 1X at 84% the strongest edge despite modest home odds.
Win probability
51.9% home27.2% draw20.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CF MontréalstepPortland Timbers
1.78Base xG · rolling 26-match1.22
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.93Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.17
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
5
5
3
1
1
9
10
6
2
1
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8
10
6
2
1
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5
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1
4
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3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
CF Montréal 2–2 Portland Timbers
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+