FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
CF Montréal 2–2 Portland TimbersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 52%, draw at 27%, Portland Timbers at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was CF Montréal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
52%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Timbers win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.93 – 1.17
Total 3.10
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 49%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.09x
- 1X✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Montréal's 1.93 xG dominance over Portland's 1.17 makes 1X at 84% the strongest edge despite modest home odds."