> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 23 May, 23:30 UTC
Charlotte FC vs New England Revolution
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Charlotte's +0.23 xG edge combined with 76% over 1.5 goals probability makes the banker pick the strongest angle despite modest win odds.
Win probability
39.9% home30.6% draw29.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Charlotte FCstepNew England Revolution
1.43Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%@ 1.67x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Anytime ScorerPro
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%@ 2.78x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Charlotte FC 1–0 New England Revolution
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+