FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Charlotte FC 1–0 New England RevolutionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Charlotte FC at 40%, draw at 31%, New England Revolution at 30%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Charlotte FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
40%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Revolution win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.31
Total 2.85
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Charlotte's +0.23 xG edge combined with 76% over 1.5 goals probability makes the banker pick the strongest angle despite modest win odds."