> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Premier League·Monday 04 May, 14:00 UTC
Chelsea vs Nottingham
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
60.2% home22.2% draw17.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ChelseastepNottingham
2.10Base xG · rolling 26-match1.19
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.26Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.15
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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7
9
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8
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1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 13.5% · @ 7.40x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+