Nottingham operate as a defensively vulnerable outfit, conceding 1.62 xG per match against an attacking output of just 1.06—a profile that suggests wins built on fortune rather than control. Their recent run of five wins from six matches masks underlying weakness: they're shipping chances consistently and will struggle against sides that convert ruthlessly. With no imminent fixtures in the window, the model's next opportunity will test whether this defensive fragility persists into their next Europa League engagement. Bawler's banker selections on Nottingham have landed at 50%, warranting closer scrutiny of bet construction around their backline exposure.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Nottingham were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Nottingham are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Nottingham actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Nottingham's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Nottingham fixture, the model lands 3 out of 6 (50%). This sits below the cross-league baseline — the model finds this team harder to read than most. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.
How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on Nottingham fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Nottingham matches.