FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Monday, 04 May 2026
Chelsea 1–3 NottinghamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 04 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Chelsea at 60%, draw at 22%, Nottingham at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Chelsea to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Chelsea win
60%
Draw
22%
Nottingham win
18%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.26 – 1.15
Total 3.41
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 44%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 7.40x
- Home Win✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓