Bawler / USA: MLS / Toronto
Team profile

Toronto Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.3
a game
12.9 faced
On target
3.6
a game
5.0 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Next match
40%
Toronto win chance
vs Charlotte · Wed 19 Aug 23:30

Toronto prediction: for Toronto's next match — Toronto vs Charlotte on Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Toronto win looks most likely (40%).

Toronto sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.12 expected goals a game and conceding 1.50. Next up is Charlotte FC, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 40%.

Toronto in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.2Away 1.0
4.3
Corners · per game
give up 5.8
Home 4.4Away 4.2
10.3
Shots · per game
faced 12.9
Home 10.9Away 9.6
3.6
On target · per game
faced 5.0
Home 4.0Away 3.3
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-1
vs New England Revolution
0-9
31 Jul
1-1
@ New York City
-
25 Jul
1-2
@ D.C. United
5-8
22 Jul
0-0
@ New England Revolution
9-7
16 Jul
0-0
@ CF Montréal
3-9
24 May
1-2
@ Chicago Fire
4-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Charlotte · Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
40%
Toronto
Draw
28%
Loss
33%
Charlotte
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Toronto compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.12
Below average
Goals against
1.50
Leakier than most
Record
2W 5D 4L
11 settled
Real goals
1.3 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.12
Conceded1.50

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.12 xG per match · -0.36 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Toronto fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Toronto

73%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)67%4/6
Result80%4/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Aug@ Inter Miami CF

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Augvs New England Revolution
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 01 Aug@ New York City FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Jul@ D.C. United
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ New England Revolution
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 17 Jul@ CF Montréal
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ Chicago Fire FC
High confidence: 1X
Sun 17 May@ Charlotte FC
High confidence: 1X
Sat 09 Mayvs Inter Miami CF
High confidence: X2
Sat 02 Mayvs San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: X2
Sat 18 Aprvs Austin FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INJoshua SargentSTfrom Norwich City€19m
INNiklas DorschDMfrom FC Heidenheim€3.6m
INBenjamín KuscevicCBfrom FortalezaLoan
INNelson PalacioCMfrom Real Salt Lake€960k
INDániel SallóiLWfrom Sporting Kansas City€225k
OUTKosi ThompsonRBto Colorado RapidsUndisclosed
OUTAdam PearlmanRBto Cavalry FCLoan
OUTMark FisherCBto Oakland RootsFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Toronto and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly