> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Sunday 24 May, 16:30 UTC
Club Brugge vs KAA Gent
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Club Brugge's title desperation combined with 0.85 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals at 84% the clearest edge.
Win probability
54.2% home23.0% draw22.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Club BruggestepKAA Gent
2.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.63
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.42Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.57
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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5
6
0
2
3
2
1
1
4
7
6
3
1
2
5
9
7
3
1
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7
5
3
1
4
3
4
3
2
1
5
1
2
2
1
6
1
1
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Club Brugge 5–0 KAA Gent
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+