FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Club Brugge 5–0 KAA GentMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Club Brugge at 54%, draw at 23%, KAA Gent at 23%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Club Brugge.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brugge win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Gent win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.42 – 1.57
Total 3.99
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Club Brugge's title desperation combined with 0.85 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals at 84% the clearest edge."