> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Sunday 17 May, 16:30 UTC
Club Brugge vs Union St.-Gilloise
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Club Brugge's xG advantage (1.84 vs 1.61) and title-race desperation outweigh Union's league-leading status in this tight encounter.
Win probability
41.1% home27.1% draw31.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Club BruggestepUnion St.-Gilloise
1.71Base xG · rolling 26-match1.67
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.84Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.61
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Club Brugge 5–0 Union St.-Gilloise
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+