FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Club Brugge 5–0 Union St.-GilloiseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Club Brugge at 41%, draw at 27%, Union St.-Gilloise at 32%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Club Brugge.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brugge win
41%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
St.-Gilloise win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.84 – 1.61
Total 3.46
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 42%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.53x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- X2✗
> What we said pre-match
"Club Brugge's xG advantage (1.84 vs 1.61) and title-race desperation outweigh Union's league-leading status in this tight encounter."