Bawler / USA: MLS / Minnesota United
Team profile

Minnesota United Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.9
a game
13.3 faced
On target
4.5
a game
4.5 faced
Goals
1.5 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
54%
Minnesota United win chance
vs Atlanta Utd · Thu 20 Aug 00:30

Minnesota United prediction: for Minnesota United's next match — Minnesota United vs Atlanta Utd on Thursday 20 Aug, 00:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Minnesota United win looks most likely (54%).

Minnesota United sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.43 expected goals a game and conceding 1.46. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.09 goals a game against 1.43 expected. Next up is Atlanta United FC, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 54%.

Minnesota United in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.5Away 1.5
4.8
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
Home 5.2Away 4.4
11.9
Shots · per game
faced 13.3
Home 12.7Away 10.9
4.5
On target · per game
faced 4.5
Home 4.9Away 4.2
Last 6 games
16 Aug
1-1
@ Real Salt Lake
10-7
12 Aug
3-1
vs Atlante
3-5
08 Aug
0-1
@ Tigres UANL
7-11
05 Aug
1-2
vs Juarez
9-2
02 Aug
1-1
vs San Diego
8-4
26 Jul
0-0
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
5-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Atlanta Utd · Thursday 20 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Win
54%
This team
Draw
25%
Loss
20%
Atlanta Utd
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Minnesota United compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.43
Below average
Goals against
1.46
Leakier than most
Record
2W 6D 3L
11 settled
Real goals
1.1 – 1.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.43
Conceded1.46

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Tough market: Result
Minnesota United matches give the model a harder read here — 1/4 (25%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on Minnesota United

45%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 11, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Goals (Over/Under)57%4/7
Result25%1/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Aug@ San Jose Earthquakes

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ Real Salt Lake
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Augvs San Diego FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs Vancouver Whitecaps
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ Sporting Kansas City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 23 Mayvs Real Salt Lake
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ New England Revolution
High confidence: X2
Thu 14 Mayvs Colorado Rapids
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 11 Mayvs Austin FC
High confidence: 1X
Sun 03 May@ Columbus Crew
High confidence: 1X
Sun 05 Apr@ Los Angeles Galaxy
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INAziel JacksonLWfrom Jagiellonia BiałystokLoan
INPeter StroudDMfrom Red Bull New York€403k
INDrake CallenderGKfrom Charlotte FC€380k
INTomás ChancalayLWfrom New England Revolution€85k
OUTKayne RizvanovichGKto Brooklyn FCLoan
OUTMatús KmetRWto Banik OstravaUndisclosed
OUTWessel SpeelGKto Almere City FCLoan
OUTKenyel MichelLWto LD AlajuelenseLoan
OUTMomoh KamaraCMto ElfsborgLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Minnesota United and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly