> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Arsenal's league-leading status and xG edge (1.47 vs 1.29) justify the X2 banker despite Palace's resilience, with BTTS No capturing underperformance risk.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Crystal Palace
Nothing to play for
15th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Away
Arsenal
Title secured
1 games left
Model nudged xG by −1.5% for motivation
Win probability
30.5% home31.3% draw38.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Crystal PalacestepArsenal
1.20Base xG · rolling 26-match1.53
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.29Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.47
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
9
7
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+