FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Crystal Palace 1–2 ArsenalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Crystal Palace at 31%, draw at 31%, Arsenal at 38%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Arsenal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Palace win
31%
Draw
31%
Arsenal win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.29 – 1.47
Total 2.76
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's league-leading status and xG edge (1.47 vs 1.29) justify the X2 banker despite Palace's resilience, with BTTS No capturing underperformance risk."